Did a quick calculation of Taleworld's burn rate for a different thread to see when they MUST release M&B:II

TLDR: TaleWorlds has (very roughly) 3-4 years to release Mount & Blade Bannerlord: II before they burn through their funding.

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Here's the back of the envelope calculation:

Lets assume TaleWorlds was perfectly efficient and used up all their previous funding in order to release Mount & Blade: Warband

TaleWorlds sold roughly 6-7million copies of Mount and Blade Warband on Steam at $19 (We'll say 6.5M). That's an initial revenue of:

• $123,500,000 EBT which is not bad at all. Steam takes 30% so now they have:

• $86,450,000 EBT which is still not bad.

But keep in mind that there is tax on that. The corporate tax rate in Turkey according to KPMG has averaged about 22% over the past couple of years so lets use that. Now they have:

• $67,431,000

Amortizing that over the 8 years since its release you get:

• $8,428,875 / year

which is a pretty average revenue for a medium sized company. TaleWorlds has 102 employees as of 2016. Now not all of these are devs but for the sake of easy calculation lets assume they are. The average salary for a developer is $86,000 but Tale Worlds is a small studio and in Turkey not the US so the salary would be lower, likely around $50,000. So in just wage expenses they have:

• $5,100,000 so subtracting that from their revenue that leaves:

• $3,328,875 /year

The benchmark Travel and other Expenses (T&E) for a company with a revenue just under $100M is roughly $700,000. Now this could be lower since a game development firm wouldn't have high travel expenses, but it could be higher since they would have higher "other" expense for hardware and server costs. Assuming they have no outside venture capital funding (which their statements seem to indicate, otherwise they would have deadlines to meet) that brings us to:

$2,628,875/year

But all of this is assuming they release this year. If they take longer that funding is spread out over a greater span of time. So here's the lay down of how much their financing/year changes over time based on how many years since 2010 they are still in development:

• 8 years: $2,628,875/year

• 9 years: $1,692,333/year

• 10 years: $943,100/year

• 11 years: $330,090/year

• 12 years: $-180,750/year

So from this very rough calculation they have 3-4 more years (2021) to put the game out until they burn through their funding.

I want to note that this is the pessimistic estimate, not the optimistic estimate. So they probably have more funding and lower expenses giving them a year or two more. Anyways, Expect Mount & Blade: II by 2021 at the latest or never Also they seem to be a lot further along in development than having 3-4 years left. So in other words. Expect the game soon, and don't worry about them going out of business before its complete.

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Here is a neater layout of the math. I have an excel file but not sure how to share it (if people wanted to play around with it).

Copies Sold...........................6,500,000.00

Price/copy......................................$19.00

Initial Rev........................$123,500,000.00

Steam Take away...............................30%

After Steam.......................$86,450,000.00

Turkish Tax Rate .................................22%

Remaining Funding............ $67,431,000.00

Years in Development..............................8

Funding/year.......................$8,428,875.00

Employees ........................................102

wage......................................$50,000.00

total wage exp....................$5,100,000.00

Minus wage exp..................$3,328,875.00

T&E.....................................$700,000.00

2018 Budget......................$2,628,875.00

Submitted February 23, 2018 at 08:52PM by avaslash http://ift.tt/2sPbfDd